With the October National Day Golden Week holiday approaching, Macau’s tourism, dining, and retail sectors are once again welcoming a traditional peak consumption season. Combining forecasts from the tourism industry and academia, the daily average number of visitor arrivals to Macau during this year’s Golden Week is expected to reach 120,000.
The massive influx of visitors combined with major events will remain a key driving force to stimulate Macau’s annual economic recovery and achieve its fiscal tax revenue targets.
In an interview, Andy Wu, President of the Travel Industry Council of Macau, stated that under the synergistic effects of various major events and multiple favorable policies introduced by the central government, the expectation of a daily average of 120,000 visitors during the holiday is optimistic. Total annual visitor arrivals to Macau are even expected to challenge 43 million to 44 million. Wu analyzed that visitor consumption patterns have deeply shifted toward independent travel and immersive experiences, with the demographic remaining primarily families and young people whose willingness to spend remains robust. Regarding the community economy, although the government is driving visitor traffic into local neighborhoods through measures such as tour shuttle buses, community SMEs still need to proactively transform by introducing differentiated products such as specialty tea drinks and boutique coffee to effectively attract young consumer groups.
Regarding the market’s focus on hotel room rates, Wu pointed out that Macau’s hotel room supply has increased by 20% to 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels. During Golden Week, hotel room rates in the Cotai area are expected to remain between MOP 4,000 and MOP 5,000, while those on the Macau Peninsula will be around MOP 1,000 to MOP 2,000. Overall room rates are tending to be stable and rational, moving away from the past image of fluctuating “catch-as-catch-can” pricing, which instead effectively lowers overnight costs for travelers and encourages them to extend their stay in Macau.
Zeng Zhonglu, President of Asia Pacific Association for Gambling Studies (APAGS), analyzed that the total number of visitor arrivals to Macau this Golden Week is expected to exceed the 3.5 million from the same period last year, reaching 3.7 million or higher. However, constrained by a decline in per capita spending, gross gaming revenue for October is projected to land between MOP 23 billion and MOP 24 billion, remaining largely flat compared to the same period last year or showing a slight adjustment downward.
Zeng added that although the growth rate of gaming revenue has slowed, successfully meeting the government’s annual budget target is beyond doubt. The SAR government’s gross gaming revenue budget target for this year is MOP 236 billion, and over 70% of it has already been achieved to date, leaving subsequent fiscal pressure relatively limited.
Addressing the structural phenomenon of high visitor volume and low spending in recent years, Zeng emphasized that this reflects a profound transformation in Macau’s source market structure. Since the pandemic, traditional high-rollers have decreased significantly, replaced by family travelers and older demographics aged 55 and above (accounting for about 28% of total visitors). While this consumer group’s spending pattern is relatively rational, meaning explosive growth in gaming revenue is a thing of the past, it also substantially lowers the risk of problem gambling, making Macau’s overall economic and gaming industry development more resilient, healthier, and sustainable.
This year’s National Day Golden Week is not only a touchstone for testing Macau’s tourism carrying capacity and service quality, but also an important indicator for observing the progress of Macau’s 1+4 adequate economic diversification. The industry generally expects that, enhanced by a strong festive atmosphere, the peak visitor traffic during Golden Week will further penetrate local communities, achieving a win-win development for integrated tourism and leisure enterprises alongside community SMEs, and injecting strong momentum into Macau’s continuous economic recovery and upward trend.
